WHAT DICTATES THE DIVIDEND-PAYOUT DECISION OF
CORPORATIONS? A CASE STUDY OF FIRMS LISTED AT KARACHI STOCK EXCHANGE
Mustafa Afeef, Assistant
Professor, Islamia College, Peshawar. Email: mustafaafeef@gmail.com
Anjum Ihsan, Assistant Professor, Islamia College, Peshawar. Email: searchanjum@yahoo.com
Hassan Zada, Lecturer, SZABIST, Islamabad. Email: iqraassignments@gmail.com
Sadia Altaf, MS Scholar, Iqra National
University, Hayatabad, Peshawar. Email: diyakhan_2010@yahoo.com
Abstract. Dividend
decision is one of the very crucial factors that have a bearing on the
long-term value of a firm. According to the traditional approach, firms that
pay larger dividends happen to have escalated share prices compared to those
that pay lower or no dividends. There have been previous studies conducted to
explore what factors make a firm pay or ignore paying dividends for a given
year. However, no consensus has been achieved so far by the researchers as to
what really determines a firm’s dividend payout decision. This study is an
attempt to re-examine some of the very major considerations a firm takes into
account while deciding about the declaration, or otherwise, of dividends. To
serve the purpose, the required financial information was obtained from
‘Financial Statement Analysis’ of Non-financial companies published by the
State Bank of Pakistan. Sixty one (61) firms were included in the sample having
thorough six year financial data ranging from 2006 to 2011 which led to a total of 366 firm-year observations.
Results of the study showed that out of the
factors analyzed, Liquidity and Profitability had a significant association
with the dividend payout policy of firms in the sample. Hence, it may be
concluded that the two mentioned factors are the major determinants of a firm’s
dividend policy.
Key words: Dividend Payout Policy, Leverage, Liquidity,
Profitability, Firm Size, Sales Growth
Introduction
What affects the dividend policy of
corporations? Financial researchers have time and again probed into the
question to find the answer. However, there is no general agreement as to what
really dictates a firm’s dividend payout policy. Miller and Modigliani (1961),
for instance, argue that a firm’s dividend policy is totally irrelevant and has
no impact on the firm’s value or the market price of the firm’s stock. On the
other hand, many researchers are of the opinion that dividend policy may
positively affect a firm’s value. The present study takes the dividend decision
as a dependent variable and attempts to explore the most significant
explanatory variables that affect the dividend payout decision of corporations.
There has been a great deal of previous work
undertaken by various researchers in the field of dividend policy decision. For
example, Fama and Babiak (1968) investigated the determinants of dividend
policy and found that the net income more explains the dividend decision of
corporations than the cash flows. Similarly, Lintner (1956) explored from his
work that firms increase their payment of dividends when they see and forecast
an increased profitability. Rao and Sarma (1971) also undertook and
industry-wide analysis of the determinants of corporate dividend policy and
their results were in support of the research once conducted by Lintner, Gordon
and Walter (1985) gave the Bird-in-the-Hand theory and argued that rational
investors always prefer current dividends over future dividends. Fama and French
(2002) found that profitable firms pay higher dividends than less- or
non-profitable ones. They also found that firms with high investments have
lower dividend payout ratios.
Myers and Frank (2004) also investigated
the dividend payout decision of firms and concluded that firms with a higher
Price-to Earnings ratio give comparatively more dividends than others. Eriotis
(2005) studied the effect of firm size and earnings on the dividend policy of
Greek firms and found a significant impact of the explanatory variables on the
dividend policy.
Ayub (2005) found a negative relationship
between liquidity and dividend policy and a positive association of
profitability, insider ownership and retained earnings with the dependent
variable. Khan (2006), on the other hand, established a negative association
between the dividend payments and ownership concentration of 330 large listed
UK firms that he took as a sample. Kumar (2006) studied the dividend policy
with respect to corporate governance a company has and found a positive
relation of the dividend payment policy with the ownership by corporations and
directors. Naeem and Nasr (2007) studied Pakistani firms with regard to their
dividend payment policies and noticed that Pakistani companies show reluctance
to payment of dividends and that their current dividend payments rely much on
the previous dividend payments. Anil and Sujjata (2008) explored that only
liquidity and beta were the significant factors that affected the dividend
payment decision of Indian Information Technology Sector which they studied
from the year 2000 till 2006.
Al-Malkawi (2007) also attempted to
determinants of corporate dividend policy and concluded that insider and state
ownership of a company’s stock has a significant association with the payment
of dividends. Asif et al. (2011)
explored the relationship between leverage and the dividend policy of Pakistani
firms for the period 2002-2008 and found a negative relationship between the
two. Finally Bose and Husain (2011), in a survey of five sectors of Indian
industry, found that most firms increased their profits as their earnings
increased and vice versa. Thus, over the past few years, quite a lot of work
has been undertaken in an attempt to determine the true factors of corporate
dividend policy.
Materials
and Methods
This study is aimed at determining the
upshot of Leverage, Profitability, Liquidity, Growth and Size of a firm on its dividend payout
policy. Hence, the following research questions are developed for this study: Does increased financial leverage lead to reduced
dividend payment by a firm owing to an increased amount of fixed financial
charge every year? Do profitable firms pay more dividends to their
stockholders? Is the dividend policy of a firm also affected or influenced by its
short-term debt-paying ability (liquidity)? Do growing firms pay more
dividends? Has the size of a firm any relationship or statistical association
with its dividend payment policy? Nonetheless, factors contributing to the dividend payment are
investigated for companies listed at Karachi Stock Exchange for a period of six
years from 2006 to 2011. The data for this purpose was acquired from an
official and legitimate document titled, “Financial Statement Analysis of
Joint Stock Companies Listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange (2006-2011)”,
formally published by the Statistics and DWH Department of the State Bank of
Pakistan (SBP). Hence the research was entirely based on the Secondary data.
It should be mentioned that the financial
corporations like Banking Companies, Insurance Companies, Leasing Companies
and Modarabas etc. were not included in this study due to their distinctively
dissimilar nature of business in comparison with the non-financial business entities.
There were a total of 399 non-financial
companies listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange as at December, 2011 as per the
analysis published by the State
Bank of Pakistan. However, in order to ensure better and significant
results, only the firms having complete information available for the six-year period
were selected as the sample firms. Hence, there were 61 firms in the sample
having thorough six year financial data ranging from 2006 to 2011 which led to a total of 366 firm-year
observations.
The data
gathered during the research process was that of the Panel (time series - cross sectional) data.
Since the sample was consisted of 61 firms from all the non-financial sectors
of the country, it included companies of different
sizes operating in different environments and, hence, those firms were not homogeneous
by their very nature. Therefore, in order not to camouflage the heterogeneity
(individuality or uniqueness) that could exist among sample firms, the Fixed Effects method of regression was
used instead of the OLS (Ordinary Least
Squares) method.
The Hypotheses
Based on the literature and the conceptual
framework for this study, following hypotheses were developed:
Hypothesis 1
The first hypothesis developed for the
study was:
H01: Liquidity
has no impact on the dividend payout policy of non-financial firms listed at
Karachi Stock Exchange.
H11: Liquidity
significantly affects the dividend payout policy of non-financial firms listed
at Karachi Stock Exchange.
Hypothesis
2
The second hypothesis developed for the
study was:
H02: Financial
leverage has no impact on the dividend payout policy of non-financial firms
listed at Karachi Stock Exchange.
H12: Financial
leverage significantly affects the dividend payout policy of non-financial
firms listed at Karachi Stock Exchange.
Hypothesis 3
The third hypothesis developed for the
study was:
H03: Profitability
has no impact on the dividend payout policy of non-financial firms listed at
Karachi Stock Exchange.
H13: Profitability
significantly affects the dividend payout policy of non-financial firms listed
at Karachi Stock Exchange.
Hypothesis 4
The fourth hypothesis developed for the
study was:
H04: Firm Size has
no impact on the dividend payout policy of non-financial firms listed at
Karachi Stock Exchange.
H14: Firm Size
significantly affects the dividend payout policy of non-financial firms listed
at Karachi Stock Exchange.
Hypothesis 5
The fifth hypothesis
developed for the study was:
H05: Growth has no
impact on the dividend payout policy of non-financial firms listed at Karachi
Stock Exchange.
H15: Growth
significantly affects the dividend payout policy of non-financial firms listed
at Karachi Stock Exchange.
The
Econometric Model
The Regression Equation employed in the study for the
sample follows:
(DPR)ot= β0-β1(D/E)ot
+ β2(A.R)ot + β3(ROCE)ot
+ β4(S.G)ot + β5(LNS)ot
+ εot
Where:
(DPR)ot = Dividend
Payout Ratio of firm o at time t; o
= 1, 2, 3, …, 61firms listed in Karachi Stock Exchange
β0 = Intercept
of the equation
t = Time = 1,2,3,4, 5, 6 Years
D/E = Debt-to-Equity Ratio (Proxy for Financial
Leverage)
A.R = Acid-test Ratio (Proxy for Liquidity)
ROCE =
Return on Capital Employed (Proxy for Profitability)
S.G= Sales
Growth
LNS= Natural
Logarithm of Sales (Proxy for Firm Size)
ε= Error Term
Results and Discussion
This chapter
offers en bloc analyses of the data gathered for the study. In the first
instance, summary statistics are provided for each of the variables under
study. The second section presents the quantitative analysis of the study:
Summary
Statistics
The
summary (also known as the ‘descriptive’) statistics for each of the variables
used in this study are presented in the following table:
Table
1: Summary Statistics
Variable |
Mean |
Median |
Minimum |
Maximum |
Acid Test
Ratio |
1.027 |
0.755 |
0.010 |
8.940 |
Debt-to-Equity
Ratio |
1.285 |
0.970 |
0.030 |
6.820 |
Return on
Capital Employed |
31.618 |
25.185 |
-41.780 |
135.370 |
Dividend
Payout Ratio |
0.500 |
0.394 |
-3.030 |
8.333 |
Natural Log of
Sales |
15.931 |
15.846 |
11.698 |
20.526 |
Growth in
Sales |
0.415 |
0.136 |
-0.100 |
43.660 |
Variable |
Std. Dev. |
C.V. |
Skewness |
Ex. Kurtosis |
Acid Test
Ratio |
1.131 |
1.102 |
3.125 |
14.085 |
Debt-to-Equity
Ratio |
1.178 |
0.917 |
1.729 |
3.771 |
Return on
Capital Employed |
24.84 |
0.786 |
1.488 |
3.163 |
Dividend
Payout Ratio |
0.611 |
1.222 |
5.439 |
77.605 |
Natural Log of
Sales |
1.593 |
0.100 |
-0.0367 |
0.147 |
Growth in
Sales |
2.733 |
6.583 |
12.178 |
175.895 |
The Regression
Results
In
the next step, regression analysis was performed to explore the impact of the
five independent variables on the dividend payout ratio. As mentioned
previously in the research methodology, the Fixed Effects method of regression
was used which is more appropriate for use in the panel data scenarios with heterogeneous firms sampled from
different industries.
Table 2: Regression Results
Fixed-Effects,
Using 366 Observations, Included 61 Cross-Sectional Units
Time-series
Length = 6; Dependent Variable: Dividend Payout Ratio
|
Coefficient |
Std.
Error |
t-ratio |
p-value |
|
||||
Constant |
2.126 |
1.504 |
1.414 |
0.158 |
|
||||
Acid-test Ratio |
0.173 |
0.045 |
3.831 |
0.000 |
*** |
||||
Debt-to-Equity |
-0.033 |
0.058 |
-0.557 |
0.578 |
|
||||
Return on Capital |
0.147 |
0.025 |
0.589 |
0.002 |
*** |
||||
LN Sales |
0.113 |
0.095 |
1.185 |
0.237 |
|
||||
Growth in Sales |
-0.001 |
0.0122 |
-0.054 |
0.957 |
|
||||
R-squared |
0.283 |
|
Durbin-Watson |
2.061 |
|||||
F-Statistic (65, 300) |
6.821 |
|
P-value (F-Statistic) |
0.000 |
|||||
Table
2 gives results of the regression model. The R square is 0.282866 which indicates that more than 28% of the
variability in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variables
tested. Moreover, the F statistic, which represents the significance of the
overall model, has a value of 6.820494with a p-value less than 0.001 indicating
that it is significant at 1% level.
Of
the five factors analyzed, only two factors namely the Liquidity and Profitability
have shown a significant association with the dividend payout policy of firms
in the sample. The leverage, firm size, and growth, however, have no
significant relationships with the dependent variable as per the results of
this study.
The
liquidity (measured by the Acid-test ratio) has a positive relationship (0.172681) with the dividend
payout ratio and the result is very significant (p-value = 0.00016). This means
that the more the liquidity of a company, the larger will be its dividend
payout ratio. This result is in line with the literature.
Profitability
(indicated by the Return on Capital Employed) also revealed a very significant
positive relationship with the dividend policy of sample firms (p-value = 0.00217). The coefficient of
beta was 0.147331.
Firm
size (as indicated by the Natural Log of Sales) also had a positive association
with the dependent variable (0.112902). However, the result was insignificant.
Financial
leverage (measured by the Debt-to-Equity ratio) represents a negative
association with the dividend payout policy of firms. The coefficient is -0.0325118. This is in line
with the literature which has also depicted a negative relationship between the
two. This connotes that the more a firm relies on external financing, the more
difficult it is for that firm to pay regular and large amounts of dividends
because of a large burden of fixed charges in the form of interest expense that
it pays each year to its creditors. However, the result is not significant.
The
growth of the firms (measured by the growth in Sales) also had a negative
relationship with the dividend policy of sample firms (-0.0006525) but the result
was not statistically significant.
In
order to ensure the results of the regression so performed were consistent and
unbiased, following further tests were performed, the results of which follow:
The
test results for Normality gave a
very significant Chi-square statistic of 284.786 (p-value = 0.0000) which
depicted that the error term of the regression followed a normal distribution.
The
Distribution Free Wald test for Heteroscedasticity
produced a Chi-square (61) of 871319 with a p-value of 0.0000 showing that
the units had a common error variance.
As
for the Multicollinearity (a
situation that arises when the independent variables are correlated), Variance
Inflation Factors were computed for each of the regressors. As can be seen, the
VIF of all the independent variables is closer to 1 and much less than 10 which
represents no collinearity problem.
Acid-test
Ratio 1.192
Debt-to-Equity 1.336
Return
on Capital Employed 1.272
LN
Sales
1.406
Growth
in Sales 1.027
Finally,
the Durbin-Watson Statistic of 2.061023
represented that there was no Autocorrelation
in the regression results and hence the error terms were not correlated.
Conclusion and Recommendations
The
subject of the dividend policy decision has been extensively searched by
academia in the field of Finance. Many studies have been attempted to
investigate the factors that may affect a firm’s decision to pay dividends.
However, no consensus has been arrived at so far as to what really dictates a
firm’s dividend payout policy. This study re-endeavored to examine the probable
factors that may influence the dividend payment decision of firms by taking a
sample of all the dividend-paying companies listed at Karachi Stock Exchange
for a period of six years from 2006 to 2011.
Results
of the study depicted a significant positive relationship of the dividend
payout ratios of sample firms with their liquidity
and profitability. The financial leverage and growth, however, had negative
relationships but these were not statistically significant. Also the firm-size had an insignificant positive
association with the dependent variable.
The
signs of the coefficients of the regressors are all in line with the
literature. Hence, this study is in support of both the theoretical content as
well as the empirical studies previously undertaken in this regard. For
example, this study shows a positive relationship between liquidity and the
dividend payout policy. Obviously firms with substantial amounts of liquid
assets can afford to drain out more cash from their business in order to pay
shareholders their share from the overall profits. On the other hand, firms
that are short of cash or equivalent items may find it difficult to remunerate
their stockholders. In the same manner, profitable firms naturally have the
ability as well as the opportunity to disburse more dividends to their
shareholders. Moreover, larger firms are also more inclined towards
compensating their stockholders than are smaller firms. The same results have
been obtained by most of the previous researchers as well. Since the results
for two of those variables, i.e., liquidity
and profitability are highly
significant, the Null hypotheses H01
andH03 are rejected and
their alternate hypotheses are being accepted for their validity.
On
the other side, however, this study could not establish any significant
relationship of the dependent variable with financial leverage, growth in
sales, and the firm-size. Although the sign of the coefficient for the leverage
variable was negative (as per the results of the previous works), it was not
significant. The possible reason of this negative relationship, however, may
lie in the fact that companies that are more externally financed have to make
sure they are able to pay for their huge amounts of interest that accrues at the end of each year. For this reason,
they normally avoid utilizing their cash by paying dividends. Nonetheless,
since the regression results for this regressor (debt-to-equity) are not
significant at any level of alpha, the Null hypothesis H02 cannot be rejected.
Most
large firms are expected to pay larger and consistent dividends. Hence, the
larger the company, the larger is its dividend payout ratio. This study also
explored a positive association between the two variables; however the result
was not significant. Hence, the Null hypothesis H04 too cannot be rejected.
It
has also been observed in the analysis that growing firms pay lesser dividends.
This may be due to the fact that growing companies normally require more and
more cash and other current assets in order to manage their ever-growing
business needs. So they might find it more challenging to consume some of their
cash in paying dividends. Hence, a larger part of the profits is retained by
growing firms in an attempt to fulfill their needs for an increased working
capital. However, results of this relationship are not significant and, hence,
no statistical association can be made between the growth in sales and the
dividend payout ratio for firms under study. Hence, the Null hypothesis H05 can also not be rejected
for its validity.
In
a nutshell, this study identifies only two broad variables that mainly explain
the dividend paying behavior of companies listed in Karachi Stock Exchange, and
these are Liquidity and Profitability.
Following
are a few recommendations for future researchers who may come forward to
further enrich the study:
·
This study only took into consideration the financial
factors that alter the dividend policy of sample firms. In essence, there are
some non-financial factors as well that could influence a firm’s decision to
pay dividends. Some of these could be the company policies, management’s
concern for its shareholders and attitude towards the payment of dividend etc.
A study incorporating those non-financial factors as well could thus come up
with more comprehensive results.
·
The impact of ownership structure on the dividend payout
policy is also a hot topic of research among the academics. However, future
researchers may also study the impact of Institutional ownership on the dividend
policy of firms in KSE.
·
Further studies may be carried out by classifying the
sample firms into financial and non-financial companies, thus studying and then
comparing the determinants of corporate dividend policy for financial and
non-financial firms.
·
Studies can also be undertaken to explore reasons behind
regular and irregular dividend payments by companies. In such case, sample
firms will have to be sub-divided into regular dividend paying and irregular
dividend paying companies. In this connection, reasons why companies omit
paying dividends also need to be explored by researchers.
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